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After eleven years of serialized cinematic storytelling on an unprecedented level, the weekend of April 26 will see the culmination of 21 previous films as the Marvel Cinematic Universe unleashes what is promised to be its biggest transitional chapter to date.





Avengers: Endgame
Opening Weekend Tracking Range: $250 – 290 million





PROS:






Audiences around the world have embraced the MCU’s library of characters over the past decade, setting up an emotional connection that has turned nearly every installment of the franchise in recent years into event-level cinema.
In a soon-to-be-published interview with Boxoffice, Joe Russo — one of the film’s two directors — stated that test audiences have given Endgame “some of the most incredible responses in Marvel history.”
Infinity War‘s lead-in one year ago offered one of the most talked-about cliffhangers in cinema history. That film generated a stellar $678.8 million domestic haul from a record $257.7 million opening weekend. The curiosity surrounding its resolution and the fate of many beloved characters will result in high awareness, intent to see, and desire to not have Endgame spoiled.
On the social media front, Boxoffice is tracking a consistently higher level of Twitter and Facebook activity for Endgame than its predecessor’s strong results last year.
This week’s Trailer Impact survey delivered a 94 percent Average Positive Interest score, the highest score tracked on the service since its inception. That metric hasn’t dipped below 93 percent since Endgame first appeared on the survey in December.
With audience interest in premium experiences higher than ever, plus a film shot entirely in IMAX format (like Infinity War), earnings for this film’s run — especially on opening weekend with intense fan demand — will be boosted by sales for IMAX, Dolby Cinema, and other PLF screens.




CONS:






This is the closest thing to a safe box office bet since the previous Avengers film, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. If there are caveats to forecasts at this stage, they are the unpredictable X factors of whether or not mainstream moviegoers side with test audiences (and, eventually, critics) and how kid-friendly the movie will be if any characters actually do meet a permanent demise. Even then, a massive opening is all but assured — regardless of whether or not it sets another record.




8-Week Tracking






Release Date
Title
3-Day Wide Release Tracking
% Chg from Last Week
Domestic Total Forecast
% Chg from Last Week
Estimated Location Count
Distributor


3/8/2019
Captain Marvel
$160,000,000

$450,000,000

4,100
Disney / Marvel


3/15/2019
Five Feet Apart
$13,000,000
13%
$39,000,000
5%
2,600
Lionsgate


3/15/2019
Wonder Park
$9,000,000
13%
$34,000,000
13%
3,400
Paramount


3/22/2019
Us
$44,000,000
5%
$135,000,000


Universal


3/29/2019
Dumbo (2019)
$55,000,000

$164,000,000


Disney


3/29/2019
Hotel Mumbai
n/a

n/a


Bleecker Street


3/29/2019
Unplanned
n/a

n/a


Pure Flix


4/5/2019
The Best of Enemies
$10,000,000

$30,000,000


STX


4/5/2019
Pet Sematary (2019)
$28,000,000

$65,000,000


Paramount


4/5/2019
Shazam!
$48,000,000

$144,000,000


Warner Bros.


4/12/2019
After (2019)
n/a

n/a


Aviron


4/12/2019
Hellboy (2019)
$22,000,000

$46,000,000


Lionsgate / Summit


4/12/2019
Little
$15,000,000

$43,000,000


Universal


4/12/2019
Missing Link
$10,000,000

$39,000,000


Annapurna Pictures


4/17/2019
Breakthrough
$15,000,000

$56,000,000


Fox


4/17/2019
Penguins
$4,500,000

$17,500,000


Disney / Disneynature


4/19/2019
The Curse of La Llorona
$20,000,000

$45,000,000


Warner Bros. (New Line)


4/26/2019
Avengers: Endgame
$265,000,000
NEW
$695,000,000
NEW

Disney / Marvel




Alex Edghill contributed to this report





Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.





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The post Long Range: <em>Avengers: Endgame</em> Tracking for Titanic $265M Domestic Record Opening appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.




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