Following a breakout by Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Sony Pictures immediately jumped on the opportunity to move its upcoming Venom: Let There Be Carnage to the first weekend of October — two weeks earlier than its most recently planned release date.
The sequel has been shuffled around the calendar quite a few times throughout the pandemic, but with tickets now officially on sale, and just three weeks left until its theatrically exclusive domestic release, fans will finally be able to check out the follow-up to 2018’s autumnal anti-hero hit.
Here’s our early peak at factors in play for Let There Be Carnage‘s box office potential in North America.
PROS:
The first film was an October record-setter at the time of its release, bowing to $80.3 million on opening weekend (only to be surpassed by Joker‘s $96.2 million one year later) after years (if not decades) of fan demand to see the popular character on the big screen. The return of Tom Hardy in the lead role will again be integral for the commercial appeal of this sequel, while fans are also eager to see Woody Harrelson’s Carnage.
Throughout the pandemic recovery so far, theatrically exclusive, multi-quadrant films have easily been the most successful box office performers. Shang-Chi recently demonstrated the potential of a comic book adaptation with availability only in cinemas on opening weekend. That film, and even Black Widow — a hybrid release, and the top pandemic debut to date — provide encouragement for the audience base base to show up again here.
Additionally, films with strong appeal toward male audiences and a balanced demographic spread from teens to adults have been drivers of pandemic and vaccine era theatrical business. That’s right within the Venom franchise’s wheelhouse, especially when considering 71 percent of the first film’s opening weekend audience was under the age of 25.
As the first tentpole film to open — nearly one month — after Shang-Chi, demand among moviegoers for the next big screen-worthy movie should be potent. Venom is expected to have wide claim over IMAX and other PLF formats upon its release.
The first film has a solid 81 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, implying there’s plenty of interest in a follow-up film.
A PG-13 rating will again be friendly to the core young audience, and concerns around the 12-and-under crowd not being eligible for vaccines yet aren’t as critical here given Venom‘s grittier tone and older lean compared traditional superhero movies.
CONS:
Despite the audience score, critics were more sour at 30 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Staying power for the film also wasn’t as strong as might often be expected for a comic book origin picture. The film drew a decent 2.66x multiplier to earn $213.5 million domestically (and a far more robust $856 million globally), but that’s more akin to the type of legs experienced by a sequel. Even pre-pandemic, diminished returns — at least in the domestic market — were to be expected.
This sequel will go head-to-head with far more challenging competition than its predecessor as No Time to Die will release just one week later — followed by Halloween Kills (October 15) and Dune (October 22) in the immediate chase weekends. James Bond’s proximity will probably result in a major second weekend decline for Carnage since 007 will presumably swipe away most of its PLF footprint.
Trailer views and social trends for the sequel haven’t been as strong as they were for the first film three years ago, although some of that could be chalked up to a scattered marketing pattern resulting from pandemic-induced delays. The next three weeks could admittedly change that analysis and prop up forecasts a bit more.
Where the first film had the aid of Indigenous Peoples’ Day landing on its first Monday (boosting Sunday business since many kids are off school that next day), the sequel will have a more traditional frame. That particular holiday doesn’t land until this film’s 11th day of release, its second Sunday.
As always, the mercies and realities of the pandemic are top of mind leading up to the day of release. News cycles regarding virus cases, vaccine hesitancy, and everything in between will factor into shifting projections for this film like they have most others.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 9/10/21)
Release Date
Title
3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range
Domestic Total Forecast Range
Estimated Location Count
Distributor
9/17/2021
Blue Bayou
Focus Features
9/17/2021
Copshop
$2,000,000 – $7,000,000
$5,000,000 – $20,000,000
2,500
Open Road Films
9/17/2021
Cry Macho
$7,000,000 – $12,000,000
$27,000,000 – $47,000,000
3,300
Warner Bros. Pictures
9/17/2021
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
9/24/2021
Dear Evan Hansen
$6,000,000 – $15,000,000
$18,000,000 – $40,000,000
Universal Pictures
10/1/2021
The Addams Family 2
$12,000,000 – $22,000,000
$40,000,000 – $70,000,000
United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021
The Jesus Music
Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
10/1/2021
The Many Saints of Newark
$15,000,000 – $25,000,000
$40,000,000 – $80,000,000
Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021
Venom: Let There Be Carnage
$45,000,000 – $65,000,000
$100,000,000 – $140,000,000
Sony Pictures / Columbia
10/8/2021
No Time to Die
MGM
10/15/2021
Halloween Kills
Universal Pictures
10/15/2021
The Last Duel
Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/22/2021
Dune
Warner Bros. Pictures
10/22/2021
The French Dispatch
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/22/2021
Ron’s Gone Wrong
Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/29/2021
Antlers
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/29/2021
Last Night in Soho
Focus Features
10/29/2021
My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission
1,500
Funimation / Toho Co. Ltd.
11/5/2021
Eternals
Disney / Marvel Studios
11/5/2021
Spencer
NEON / Topic Studios
11/12/2021
Belfast
Focus Features
11/19/2021
King Richard
Warner Bros. Pictures
11/19/2021
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Sony Pictures / Columbia
11/24/2021
Encanto
Walt Disney Pictures
11/24/2021
House of Gucci
MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/24/2021
National Champions
STXfilms
11/24/2021
Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City
Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures
12/3/2021
Nightmare Alley (Limited)
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/3/2021
Wolf
Focus Features
12/10/2021
Cyrano
United Artists Releasing
12/10/2021
Don’t Look Up
Netflix
12/10/2021
Violence of Action
STXfilms
12/10/2021
West Side Story (2020)
Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/17/2021
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
12/22/2021
A Journal for Jordan (Wide Expansion)
Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures
12/22/2021
The King’s Man
Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/22/2021
The Matrix Resurrections
Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2021
Sing 2
Universal Pictures
12/25/2021
American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story
Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
12/31/2021
(no releases scheduled)
For more information on detailed and pinpoint forecasts, contact us for pricing and availability.
As always, the news cycle is constantly evolving as the pandemic dictates. Projections are subject to change amid breaking announcements.
The post Long Range Box Office Forecast: <em>Venom: Let There Be Carnage</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.
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