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This week’s report takes an early look at the final weekend of October as a busy month comes to a close before the holiday season officially kicks in. We’re also offering a significant update on a highly anticipated release earlier in the month…


A Star Is Born

Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 55 million (up from $25 – 35 million)


Following up on our initial analysis of the star-driven remake, the film continues to gain momentum as release approaches. Warner Bros. was confident enough to drop the review embargo today — over a full month ahead of opening day — and critics are praising the film, confirming earlier expectations that it could be a strong award season player.


From the numbers side, forecast models are even more bullish than before thanks to strong social media activity and interest metrics from our Trailer Impact surveys. On both fronts, A Star Is Born had been pacing closely to — and ahead of, in some scenarios — the trends of Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again at the same point before its release. That was before the review embargo dropped today, which should only serve to boost interest and awareness going forward.


For now, we’re expecting fans of the original films and the Gaga/Cooper pairing to drive some relative front-loading (compared to leggier hits like Greatest Showman and La La Land), but we’ll continue to look at the film closely in the coming weeks as it and Venom are aiming to combine for a stellar first weekend at the October box office.


Hunter Killer

Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million


Lionsgate’s Hunter Killer will hope to follow in the footsteps of numerous male-driven action/thrillers that have performed well so far in 2018 when it opens in late October. The film’s ensemble led by Gerard Butler, Gary Oldman, Linda Cardellini, and Common will be definite advantages toward that goal, as well as the fact that not many films aimed at older male audiences will be opening around this portion of the calendar. Early comps include the likes of Mile 22, Den of Thieves, Geostorm, and American Assassin.


Johnny English Strikes Again

Opening Weekend Range: $3 – 5 million


This franchise is built for overseas play, underlined by the fact that 2011’s Johnny English Reborn earned 95 percent of its $160.1 million global revenue from outside North American borders. We’re expecting similar results to that sequel’s $3.8 million opening / $8.3 million total on the domestic side, which would be a healthy result driven by the franchise’s loyal fans looking forward to a new chapter in the series.


8-Week Tracking





Release Date
Title
3-Day Wide Opening
% Chg from Last Week
Domestic Total
% Chg from Last Week
Estimated Location Count
Distributor


9/7/2018
God Bless the Broken Road
$2,500,000
67%
$6,300,000
68%
1,200
Freestyle Releasing


9/7/2018
The Nun
$39,000,000

$93,000,000

3,700
Warner Bros. / New Line


9/7/2018
Peppermint
$13,000,000

$34,000,000

2,850
STX Entertainment


9/14/2018
The Predator (2018)
$30,000,000

$66,000,000

3,600
Fox


9/14/2018
A Simple Favor
$13,500,000
-4%
$38,600,000
-4%
3,000
Lionsgate


9/14/2018
Unbroken: Path to Redemption
$2,000,000

$4,900,000

1,300
Pure Flix


9/14/2018
White Boy Rick
$10,000,000

$32,000,000

2,700
Sony / Studio 8


9/21/2018
Fahrenheit 11/9
n/a

n/a


Briarcliff


9/21/2018
The House with a Clock In Its Walls
$24,000,000

$79,000,000


Universal


9/21/2018
Life Itself
n/a

n/a


Amazon Studios


9/28/2018
Hell Fest
$9,500,000

$22,000,000


Lionsgate / CBS Films


9/28/2018
Little Women (2018)
n/a

n/a


Pinnacle Peak


9/28/2018
Night School (2018)
$17,500,000

$55,000,000


Universal


9/28/2018
Smallfoot
$23,000,000

$80,000,000


Warner Bros.


10/5/2018
A Star Is Born
$44,000,000
47%
$150,000,000
7%

Warner Bros.


10/5/2018
Venom (2018)
$65,000,000

$135,000,000


Sony / Columbia


10/12/2018
Bad Times at the El Royale
$13,000,000

$40,000,000


Fox


10/12/2018
First Man
$20,000,000

$90,000,000


Universal


10/12/2018
Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween
$14,000,000

$45,000,000


Sony / Columbia


10/19/2018
Halloween (2018)
$60,000,000

$142,000,000


Universal


10/19/2018
The Hate U Give
n/a

n/a


Fox


10/19/2018
Serenity (2018)
n/a

n/a


Aviron


10/26/2018
Hunter Killer
$14,000,000
NEW
$41,000,000
NEW

Lionsgate / Summit


10/26/2018
Indivisible
n/a

n/a


Pure Flix


10/26/2018
Johnny English Strikes Again
$4,000,000
NEW
$8,750,000
NEW

Universal




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The post Long Range Tracking: ‘A Star Is Born’ Climbs the Chart; ‘Hunter Killer’ & ‘Johnny English Strikes Again’ First Looks appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.




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